NHL Point Streak Survivor — Oct 5
Monday, October 5. Four games. First puck is Philadelphia at Tampa Bay, 7:00 p.m. ET.
A point is a goal or an assist. The sheet is the board. This is the part that fits in public.
The slate: Flyers at Lightning, 7:00. Senators at Bruins, 7:30. Jets at Penguins, 7:30.. Sharks at Stars, 8:00.
Do not use Bryan Rust. He is out. Matt Duchene is out for Dallas, so the Stars’ top line has to carry it.
One safe lean: Mikko Rantanen, Dallas, in the 8:00 game. DraftKings had the point at −215. The model on that price was 69.5 percent, about 1.2 points of edge. Wyatt Johnston is the same game at −175, 66.1 percent. Use one, not both.
One trap: Kyle Connor. Three goals in two games. The posted number this morning was a goal at +165, not a 1+ point. The heater is the click. The price is not the point.
The rest of the safe, flex, and trap board is on the sheet. Entertainment only. Confirm he dresses.
How to read odds, FV, EV, POP
Odds are the American price to record a goal or an assist. Minus-215 means you lay 215 to win 100. Plus-110 means 100 wins 110.
Implied is that price turned into a chance. A minus number is the absolute value divided by the absolute value plus 100. A plus number is 100 divided by the price plus 100. Minus-215 is 68.3 percent. Minus-175 is 63.6 percent. Plus-110 is 47.6 percent.
FV, fair value, is the chance he actually records the point once the hold is out. POP is that same chance. Where a published model is cited, the sheet tags DK. Where the 0.5 was not posted and the number is built off a goal price, the sheet tags EST. EST is not a second book.
EV is the model chance against the posted price. Positive means the number is still short of fair. Flat or negative means you are paying for the name. Rantanen at −215 is plus-1.2 percent. Connor’s converted number is minus-1.9 percent. That is the difference between a lean and a chalk price.
Survivor does not need plus-money. It needs the point, at a price that has not already run past fair. Confirm he dresses. An alternate replaces a primary who does not play.