NHL Point Streak Survivor: Oct 26
Yesterday’s Recap (Oct 25)
All three picks hit.
- Safe — Nathan MacKinnon: 1 assist in Colorado’s 2-6 loss at Nashville.
- Flex — Matthew Tkachuk: 1 goal in Florida’s 3-2 win at Chicago.
- Trap — Connor Bedard: 1 assist in Chicago’s 2-3 loss to Florida.
Today’s Slate (Oct 26)
- Los Angeles Kings @ New York Rangers — 7:00 PM ET
- Toronto Maple Leafs @ Calgary Flames — 8:30 PM ET
- Detroit Red Wings @ Edmonton Oilers — 9:30 PM ET
Expected goalies (morning updates): Kuemper (LAK), Garand (NYR), Bobrovsky (TOR), Cooley/Wolf (CGY), Gibson (DET), Jarry (EDM). Confirm actives before lock.
Today’s Picks (Edgehalla Model)
| Tier | Player | Matchup | 1+ Pts (w%) | Proj Pts | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAFE | Connor McDavid (EDM) | vs DET | 85% | 1.91 | -576 |
| FLEX | Leon Draisaitl (EDM) | vs DET | 77% | 1.46 | -329 |
| TRAP | William Nylander (TOR) | @ CGY | 72% | 1.27 | -256 |
SAFE: Connor McDavid (EDM vs DET)
w% (1+ Pts): 85% | Proj Pts: 1.91 | Fair Value: -576 | 2+ Pts: 57%
McDavid is the clear top projection on the slate. He has 33 points (8G, 25A) in 11 games and is on a historic early pace. Facing John Gibson and a Detroit team that has been leaky at times. High ice time, PP1, and elite playmaking make this the safest 1+ point play.
What could go wrong? Gibson steals the game, Oilers get shut down early, or McDavid has a rare low-event night. Still the highest floor on the board.
Worth saving? Yes. Use when you want maximum safety and are protecting a long streak.
FLEX: Leon Draisaitl (EDM vs DET)
w% (1+ Pts): 77% | Proj Pts: 1.46 | Fair Value: -329 | 2+ Pts: 43%
Draisaitl pairs with McDavid and has been producing at a high rate (23 points in 11 games). Strong goal-scoring upside (0.66 projected goals) and consistent PP1 deployment. Slightly lower probability than McDavid but excellent secondary option in the same high-total game.
What could go wrong? Detroit collapses the middle and limits the Oilers’ top line, or Draisaitl has a quiet night while McDavid carries the offense. Gibson is capable of a big game.
Worth saving? Strong flex. Ideal when you want Oilers exposure without burning your safest pick.
TRAP: William Nylander (TOR @ CGY)
w% (1+ Pts): 72% | Proj Pts: 1.27 | Fair Value: -256 | 2+ Pts: 36%
Nylander is coming off a strong recent stretch and projects well against Calgary. High PP1 usage and secondary scoring role behind Matthews. Slightly lower probability than the Oilers stars but still well above average on a three-game slate. Trap because of the road matchup and Calgary’s potential for a tighter game.
What could go wrong? Calgary tightens up defensively, the goalie has a strong night, or Nylander gets limited looks in a low-event game. Leafs offense can be boom-or-bust on the road.
Worth saving? Borderline. Use if you need upside and are comfortable with the variance, or save for a clearer matchup.
Data source: Edgehalla model projections (updated Oct 26). Fair odds derived from model probability. Always confirm lineups, goalies, and actives before entry lock. Not betting advice — for survivor pool strategy only.