NHL Point Streak Survivor — Oct 4

Sunday, October 4, 2026. Five games. First puck is Winnipeg at Detroit at 1:00 p.m. ET, so this is the early-window read. Prices were checked Sunday morning, before that lock. They are not Saturday’s numbers.

If you are already in the Splash Sports NHL Point Streak Survivor and you have not been eliminated, you can still play today. New players cannot enter until Thursday.

A point is a goal or an assist. One of them advances you. The Gumroad sheet is the board. This is the part that fits in public.

The slate and the locks

All times Eastern.

• 1:00 p.m. — Winnipeg Jets at Detroit Red Wings, Little Caesars Arena. Jets -105, Wings -115, total 5.5. DSN, NHL Network, TSN3.
• 6:00 p.m. — Utah Mammoth at New York Rangers, Madison Square Garden. Utah +110, Rangers -130, total 5.5.
• 8:00 p.m. — Florida Panthers at Anaheim Ducks, Honda Center. Florida -135, Anaheim +114, total 6.5.
• 8:00 p.m. — Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken, Climate Pledge Arena. Calgary +130, Seattle -155, total 5.5.
• 9:00 p.m. — Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks, Rogers Arena. Vegas -245, Vancouver +200, total 6.5.

Actives, before you click

Do not use Dylan Larkin. Upper body. He took a limited skate and is not playing Sunday. Marco Kasper will not play. Connor Hellebuyck is suspended, which matters for the Jets’ net, not for a point.

Florida is without Aleksander Barkov (lower body, LTIR, at least 10 games) and Brad Marchand (out for October). Troy Terry is out for Anaheim. Jonathan Huberdeau is out for Calgary. Mackie Samoskevich is out for Seattle, so ignore any shot prop still hanging on his name. Thatcher Demko and Filip Chytil are out for Vancouver. Jake DeBrusk is day-to-day with an illness. Gustav Forsling is a game-time decision. Gabriel Vilardi missed a maintenance skate and is projected in.

Kyle Connor is marked Active on the DraftKings player page.

How to read odds, FV, EV, POP

Odds are the American price to record a goal or an assist. Minus-150 means you lay 150 to win 100. Plus-100 is even money.

Implied is that price turned into a probability. A negative price is the absolute value divided by the absolute value plus 100. A positive price is 100 divided by the price plus 100. Minus-150 is 60 percent. Minus-200 is 66.7 percent. Plus-100 is 50 percent.

FV, fair value, is the chance he actually records the point once the hold is out. POP is that same chance. Where a published model is cited, the sheet tags MODEL. Where only one side is posted, the sheet uses a small hold haircut and tags EST. EST is not a second book.

EV is FV minus implied, in probability points. Positive means the posted number is still short of fair. Flat or negative means you are paying for the name.

Survivor does not need plus-money. It needs the point, at a price that has not already run past fair. Confirm he dresses. An alternate replaces a primary who does not play.

One safe lean

Lucas Raymond, Detroit, in the 1:00 p.m. game.

DraftKings had him to record a point at -150 on the 8:52 a.m. ET board. Implied 60 percent. The model on that price put the chance at 63.3 percent, about 3.3 points of edge. Other books on the same 0.5-point market were anywhere from -140 to -200, so re-check the number at lock. He is on the top line with Alex DeBrincat. Larkin is out. Kasper is out. The remaining top six has to carry the offense in a game priced as a coin flip, total 5.5.

The shorter name on the same card is Kyle Connor, posted 1+ at -200 on the DraftKings player page Sunday morning, implied 66.7 percent, Active, two points Friday against Boston. That is the chalk. The price is already full. Raymond is the lean because the number still pays for the spot.

One trap

Brock Boeser, Vancouver, in the 9:00 p.m. game.

DraftKings had the point at +100 on that same morning board. Implied 50 percent. The model was 51.8 percent, a coin flip. Vegas is -245. Boeser is the home name people will click after Vancouver put four on Calgary. The price does not back that click. A survivor spot at even money against a heavy favorite is how a streak ends with the wrong kind of logic.

If you want the cleaner version of the same mistake: Brandon Montour’s posted market is the under on 0.5 points, -190 at theScore. That number is on the blank, not the point.

What this note does not include

The rest of the safe, flex, and trap board is not here. Neither is every odds row. Jack Eichel’s points main line on the morning books is 1.5, not a posted 1+, and that distinction lives on the sheet with the other tags.

The Oct 4 Gumroad sheet has the full slate, the posted prices, the EST marks, and the board. Use that before the 1:00 p.m. lock, and re-check the number. Odds move.

Entertainment only. Pool strategy, not a recommendation to wager.