NHL Point Streak: Safe, Flex & Trap Oct 25

By Shawn Stewart

Five games on the board. First puck drops at 3:00 p.m. ET. Goal or assist (0.5 points) only. Prices and Edgehalla model percentages checked morning ET. Confirm actives and goalies before lock.

Yesterday Recap (Oct 24)
Safe McDavid hit (2 assists). Flex Celebrini hit (1 assist). Trap Point hit (1 goal).
Finals: TOR 7-2 EDM, SJS 4-6 BOS, TBL 4-5 OT UTA.

Safe, Flex & Trap

SAFE — Nathan MacKinnon (COL @ NSH, 8:00)
Odds: -425 (81% implied)
Model: 79% | Fair value: -376 | EV: -2.5%
Highest model on the slate. Price is already past fair, so you’re paying for the name. Worth saving. Annunen expected for Nashville. A quiet night from the top unit ends the burn.

FLEX — Matthew Tkachuk (FLA @ CHI, 3:00)
Odds: -235 (70.1% implied)
Model: 78% | Fair value: -355 | EV: +7.9%
Model sits ahead of the posted number. Ice time and shot volume are there. Worth saving. Knight expected for Chicago. A strong defensive night from the Blackhawks blanks it.

TRAP — Connor Bedard (FLA @ CHI, 3:00)
Odds: ~-200 (66.7% implied)
Model: 67% | Fair value: -203 | EV: +0.3%
Price sits right on the model. Borderline at best. A low-event game blanks the trap. Not worth forcing.

What Could Go Wrong
MacKinnon’s -425 is already short of the 79% model. Tkachuk has the better number relative to his projection, but the matchup can still shut him down. Bedard is priced near fair—any low-scoring script ends it.

Is the Pick Worth Saving?
MacKinnon yes. Highest model, even if the price is short. Tkachuk yes. Clear model edge at -235. Bedard no. Price and model are essentially even. Kaprizov sits next at ~74% if you want another high-model name with deep pricing.

Entertainment only. Re-check the number before lock.

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